Unemployment numbers from feds getting hinky

Remember our warning back on Jan. 6, 2012, about the feds essentially taking over unemployment reports?

Now, Mish has a more complete analysis of numbers relating to who is working, who isn’t and how many unemployed people there are. These numbers are from a variety of sources and … they don’t add up.

Here’s a key graf from his excellent post:

Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness.

This whole post is a pretty tough piece of prose. It requires quite a bit of concentration, but you will be rewarded if you make the effort.

But don’t get mad about being gypped. Get smart. Check your brain to see what it thinks it knows. You will have heard the chirpy newscasters trumpeting 8.1%. Can you get that number out of your head? Here’s a little test for you: quickly say, “What’s the unemployment rate in the U.S. today?”

If the 8.1% number pops into your mind unbidden, you will know you have been infected.

Are you one of those rational, intelligent, skeptical people who says smugly, “I don’t believe anything I hear on TV!” Ask yourself about the test above. What just happened?

Now, here is what Mish has come up with for a more realistic unemployment rate: “Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.”

Put that number in place of the propaganda number in your brain. There! That was easy!

Advertisements

About InvestingforOne

I've been investing in various assets by myself using a discount broker for many years. Over that time, I've developed some theories that others might find useful. Plus, there is more to investing than money. Time, talent, work, friends, family all go into developing a good and satisfactory strategy.
This entry was posted in Basics, Economy and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s