So, what does the OW do? They ratchet up the action, following the radical training manual. We don’t know who is “running” this show, but clearly they are not ready to fold their tents just yet. They appear to be hardening off their core protesters, getting them trained for bigger actions in the Spring.
Generally when The Runners run out of ammo, protesters fade away. This normally happens when the public turns against them. Demonstrations, or Actions, are only as effective as public support, or at least tolerance, lasts. We learned this from our experience with teacher strikes and demonstrations threatening a strike.
Here are the players:
a. The Runners. You never see them. Usually, you don’t know who they are. With union actions, you do know who they are.
b. Counter-advisors. These folks advise employers/school boards/authorities on resistance tactics and explain how protests are run.
c. The Dupes. First line protestors, usually not plugged into the big picture.
d. The Troups. Core protestors, trained radicals.
How an Action goes down: An action is a specific protest. Much advance planning goes into this before it bursts into public view.
a. Mild protest. Protestors, both Dupes and Troups, line up on sidewalks, yell, scream, wave signs, don’t always make sense or even know what they are yelling about.
b. Medium protest. Protestors settle in, usually the town square. Form cells. Put up tents. Organize rudimentary social controls – security, public relations, sanitation, internal communications, etc. At first sign of police resistance they choose from two options – ratchet up or fade away.
d. Ratcheted up protest. This usually occurs at about Week Three, but the medium stage can last as long as six weeks. To ratchet up, we need Victims and Police Provocations.
Not easy, but here are some techniques for obtaining the correct, i.e., violent, response:
a. The “veteran” victim in Oakland. Hasn’t panned out yet. In fact, he disappeared.
b. Policeman pushed in front of a bus in Portland, Oreg. WRONG provocation! They had to back off big time!
c. Now, we have three victims in Wash DC. Unfortunately, there were witnesses, so this one also can be marked down as a failure.
“He said witnesses told police that the three pedestrians “either ran toward or jumped in front of the moving vehicle.” He said one pedestrian jumped on the hood of the car. One of them was cited for being in the roadway.” IFO: this is SOP.
So, how is it going in your city? Can you predict, given these tips, how your protest will proceed?
Investment lesson: try to analyse similarly the industry and specific company of a stock you are interested in.